Tax estimate notice in Germany: what online sellers do now

A tax estimate notice (Schätzungsbescheid) is a tax assessment in which the tax office estimated your figures because you did not file a VAT return or declaration. For you as a seller this means a one-month deadline. Within that time, file an objection (Einspruch) and submit the missing return or declaration. You still have to pay the estimated amount at first, unless the tax office suspends payment.

Last updated: 27 October 2026

In brief

What it is: The tax office must estimate the tax bases where it cannot determine or calculate them (section 162(1) AO). Where a VAT return is missing, it then assesses the tax itself (section 167(1) sentence 1 AO).
Deadline: An objection within one month after the notice is deemed delivered (section 355(1) AO).
What you do: File the objection and submit the missing return or declaration. Your duty to file it remains after the estimate (section 149(1) sentence 4 AO).
Paying: The objection does not stop payment (section 361(1) AO). On request the tax office can suspend enforcement (section 361(2) AO).
More than the tax: A late-filing surcharge, late-payment surcharges and interest can come on top.

What is an estimate notice, and how do you recognise it?

As a business you calculate your VAT yourself and report it: in the advance return for each period and in the annual return, which is also a tax return you calculate yourself (section 18(3) UStG). After you file, the tax office normally sends no notice. You only get a notice if it departs from your figures (North Rhine-Westphalia tax offices, annual VAT return page).

If you file nothing, the tax office can assess the tax without a return (section 167(1) sentence 1 AO). It estimates the figures for that. The tax offices of North Rhine-Westphalia describe it this way: whoever does not file a tax return although obliged to may receive an estimate notice.

Whether your notice is an estimate is shown in the explanations at its end. According to the NRW tax offices, you find there, for example, the sentence that the tax bases were estimated under section 162 of the Fiscal Code (AO) because no return was filed despite a request.

For online sellers it typically happens like this: an advance return was left undone, the annual return is missing, or mail from the tax office was overlooked. A missed OSS return follows its own rules, described in OSS return deadline missed.

What deadline applies to the objection?

The legal remedy against the notice is the objection (section 347(1) AO). It must be filed within one month after the notice is deemed delivered (section 355(1) AO).

Delivery is not the date on the letter. A notice sent by post inside Germany is deemed delivered on the fourth day after it was posted, an electronically sent one on the fourth day after it was sent. That does not hold if it arrived later; then the tax office has to prove receipt (section 122(2) and (2a) AO). Count cautiously and file early.

If you missed the deadline without fault of your own, reinstatement (Wiedereinsetzung in den vorigen Stand) may be possible. The request must be made within one month after the obstacle ended, and the missed act must be made up in that time (section 110 AO). Do not count on it: if the notice is not issued subject to review, the NRW tax offices point out that after a missed objection deadline a change in your favour usually no longer happens, because you are responsible for the late filing. What the reservation does is explained below.

What do you do now, step by step?

Read the date and the explanations. Which tax, which period, when did the notice reach you, does the explanation cite an estimate under section 162 AO?
File the objection. In writing, electronically or by statement for the record, with the tax office that issued the notice (section 357(1) and (2) AO). It is enough that the objection shows who filed it; a wrong label does no harm. You should name the notice, how far you contest it and the reasons (section 357(3) AO). A short objection also keeps the deadline: you name the notice you are contesting and announce the missing return.
Submit the missing returns and declarations. The advance returns for the affected periods and the annual return, with the real figures from your reports and receipts. This is how the estimate is replaced by the correct figures.
Apply for suspension of enforcement if you do not want to pay the estimated amount until a new decision is made. More on that below.
Watch deadlines set by the tax office. If the tax office sets you a deadline during the objection procedure, statements and evidence after it are disregarded (section 364b(2) AO). Reinstatement under section 110 AO applies accordingly.

If you have a tax adviser, give them the notice the same day so the deadline is not missed.

What does the late return achieve?

According to the NRW tax offices, an estimate notice is usually issued subject to review (Vorbehalt der Nachprüfung). While the reservation is effective, the assessment can be changed, and you can apply for the change at any time (section 164(2) AO). The NRW tax offices write: while the reservation applies, all tax bases can be taken into account according to the return filed later and the estimate notice changed.

If the notice has no such reservation, the NRW tax offices say only the objection within the one-month period remains. That is why you do not just submit the return, you also file the objection.

A tax return submitted later is treated like an assessment subject to review. If it leads to a lower tax than before, that only applies once the tax office agrees (section 168 AO). The consent needs no form. This is one more reason not to skip the objection.

Do I have to pay although I object?

At first, yes. The objection does not stop the collection of the tax (section 361(1) AO), and according to the NRW tax offices the late return has no suspensive effect either. The estimated amount is due first and is only changed by a new notice.

You can apply for suspension of enforcement. On request it should be granted where serious doubts exist about the lawfulness of the notice or where enforcement would be an unfair hardship (section 361(2) AO). The NRW tax offices add: with an estimate, suspension is only granted if the outstanding return is filed at the same time. Without the return you have little chance.

For a notice issued because no return was filed, the difference in the tax office's favour is due one month after the notice is delivered (section 18(4) sentence 2 UStG). Overdue advance payments keep their own due date (section 18(4) sentence 3 UStG).

How high may the tax office estimate?

According to the NRW tax offices, the aim of the estimate is to find the tax bases most likely to be correct. The tax office relies on experience values, comparison values and, as a rule, on your earlier years. By law it must take into account all circumstances relevant to the estimate (section 162(1) AO).

The NRW tax offices also make clear that the uncertainty of an estimate does not count against the tax office, because your delay caused it. It is therefore in principle permissible to use the upper end of the possible range for tax-increasing bases. So expect the estimated amount to be on the high side. One more reason to submit your real figures.

What comes on top of the estimated tax?

That depends on the case. The law knows these side effects:

Late-filing surcharge. Against someone who does not file a tax return or files it late, the tax office may set a surcharge (section 152(1) AO). The NRW tax offices point out that it regularly adds it to an estimate. For returns that cover a calendar year it is 0.25 percent of the assessed tax, after deducting prepayments, for each started month of delay, at least 25 euros per month (section 152(5) sentence 2 AO). This does not apply to monthly or quarterly advance returns; for those the tax office takes into account the length and frequency of the delay and the amount of tax (section 152(8) AO). The maximum is 25,000 euros (section 152(10) AO).
Late-payment surcharge. If tax is not paid by the due date, 1 percent of the rounded-down unpaid amount is added for each started month. The surcharge does not arise before the tax is assessed or filed (section 240(1) AO).
Interest. For VAT, interest on back payments starts 15 months after the end of the calendar year in which the tax arose (section 233a(2) AO). The rate is 0.15 percent for each month (section 238(1a) AO).
Coercive penalty. If you still do not file, the tax office can, according to the NRW tax offices, set a coercive penalty to force the filing.

If the notice is changed later, the surcharge and the interest are adjusted too: the surcharge is reduced or increased (section 152(12) AO), the interest is recalculated (section 233a(5) AO). Late-payment surcharges that have already arisen stay (section 240(1) sentence 4 AO).

Common mistakes

Waiting until the return is finished. The objection deadline keeps running. File the objection first and submit the return afterwards.
Filing only the return and no objection. Without a reservation, hardly anything can be changed after the one-month period.
Taking the date on the letter as the start of the deadline. Delivery under section 122 AO counts.
Ignoring the payment. The objection does not stop payment. Without suspension, late-payment surcharges follow.
Putting the notice aside because the figures are wrong. Wrong figures are the reason for the objection, not a reason to do nothing.
Leaving future returns undone as well. Every further advance return not filed can lead to the next notice. The dates are in VAT return deadlines 2026 and 2027.

How VAT GPT helps

VAT GPT is the tax software for Amazon and eBay sellers in Germany: your OSS return first, then VAT, EÜR, trade tax and income tax, calculated and filed in one place.

VAT GPT imports your Amazon and eBay CSV reports and breaks the VAT down for Germany and the EU (OSS).
VAT GPT sorts your uploads by year and quarter.
VAT GPT creates the VAT advance return (monthly or quarterly) and the annual VAT return and sends them to the tax office through ELSTER with VAT GPT Pro.

VAT GPT does not replace tax advice.

Try VAT GPT

Frequently asked questions

What is a tax estimate notice? A tax assessment in which the tax office estimated the tax bases because it could not determine or calculate them (section 162(1) AO), for example because a return or declaration is missing.

By when must I file an objection? Within one month after the notice is deemed delivered (section 355(1) AO). A notice sent by post is deemed delivered on the fourth day after posting (section 122(2) AO).

Does submitting the return help? Yes. According to the NRW tax offices the estimate notice can be corrected that way if it is issued subject to review. Without the reservation it works only through the objection within the deadline.

Do I have to pay the estimated amount? At first, yes. The objection and the late return do not stop payment. You can apply for suspension of enforcement (section 361 AO).

Can the tax office estimate for periods long ago? Only within the assessment period. How long it runs is in VAT back payment in Germany: how many years back?.

Does this also apply to a missed OSS return? Different rules apply; they are in OSS return deadline missed.